Belke, Ansgar; Goecke, Matthias; Guenther, Martin:
Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in German Exports: Sectoral Evidence for Some OECD Destinations
2012
In: DIW Diskussionspapiere = Discussion Papers / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Heft 1203, S. 1 - 22
Artikel/Aufsatz in Zeitschrift / Fach: Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften » Fachgebiet Volkswirtschaftslehre » Makroökonomik
Titel:
Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in German Exports: Sectoral Evidence for Some OECD Destinations
Autor(in):
Belke, Ansgar im Online-Personal- und -Vorlesungsverzeichnis LSF anzeigen; Goecke, Matthias; Guenther, Martin
Erscheinungsjahr:
2012
Erschienen in:
DIW Diskussionspapiere = Discussion Papers / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Heft 1203, S. 1 - 22
ISSN:
Link URL:

Abstract:

A non-linear model is applied where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction. We call the latter a “play” area – analogous to mechanical play and implement an algorithm describing path-dependent playhysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rates on German exports is then estimated based on quarterly data from 1995Q1 to 2010Q3. For some of the main export partners of Germany outside the euro area and some of the most important tradable sectors we find significant hysteretic effects for a part of the German exports.