The Schill Factor in the Hamburg State Election 2001.
In: German Politics, Jg. 11 (2002) ; Nr. 2, S. 1-20
Zeitschriftenaufsatz / Fach: Politikwissenschaft
This article examines the success of the newly founded populist Schill party in the Hamburg state election of September 2001, when it was able to gain almost 20 per cent of the vote and subsequently even managed to become part of the new state government in Hamburg. This success - in its extent unprecedented in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany - is dealt with in light of previous successes of protest parties in Germany. Based on an aggregate as well as an individual data analysis, the authors come to the conclusion that Schill's success can to a considerable extent be explained by well known models of voting decisions and by characteristic reasons for casting a protest vote. Therefore, the Schill party can be termed a protest party that is not likely to prevail despite of its meteoric rise.